WVU Football Road to Bowl Berth

The West Virginia Mountaineers are experiencing “growing pains,” as Head Coach Neal Brown puts it. According to Brown, the team is currently playing a combined 21 freshman and sophomores.

There’s a reason the brand conceived the #TrustTheClimb moniker coming into 2019. With a new coaching staff and the loss of several key players from 2018, Coach Brown and AD Shane Lyons wanted to establish low expectations before the season started. Back in June, Lyons said “We have to be a bit realistic here.”

Currently, the Mountaineers are sitting at 3-3, with a 1-2 conference record. Having lost miserably in week two at Missouri and now back-to-back home games against Texas and Iowa State, it doesn’t get any easier for WVU.

Let’s breakdown some factors that could affect the Mountaineers’ chances to reach the six win mark and make a postseason bowl, while also taking a look at WVU’s remaining opponents.

Run the Ball Effectively

Prior to the start of the season, much hype surrounded WVU’s stable of experienced and proven running backs including Kennedy McKoy, Martell Pettaway, Leddie Brown and Alec Sinkfield.

As many have observed, the rushing attack for WVU has for the most part been abysmal. Netting just 566 yards on 183 attempts, the EERs are 114^th nationally in rushing. WVU’s lead rusher, senior Kennedy McKoy, has just 217 yards on 62 attempts and three touchdowns.

Much of the running issue can perhaps be attributed to a young offensive line. Offensive line starters this season have included James Gmiter (freshman), who moved from defensive line to o-line in the spring, Briasion Mays (freshman), John Hughes (sophomore), Chase Behrndt (junior), Kelby Wickline (senior), Josh Sills (junior) and Colton McKivitz (senior). The majority of remaining offensive lineman belong to either the freshman or sophomore class.

It’s not all on the offensive line, however. Also notable is the need for receivers and tight ends to step up in their blocking duties. Additionally, WVU’s running backs need to execute when opportunities arise. Coach Brown mentioned in his latest press conference how McKoy “has had some opportunities in the open field and hasn’t made the most of those.”

That’s not to say there hasn’t been flashes of a formidable run game. The best performances came against NC State in week three and Kansas in week four. Rushing yards for WVU were around 200 in both games with three touchdowns scored against NC State, respectively. However, WVU hasn’t even been able to crack 100 yards running the ball in either of its last two contests.

A descent run game would likely help WVU tremendously down the stretch, possibly even improving the pass.

Get Healthy/Young Guys have to Step Up

WVU has experienced some major attrition due to injuries and departures. Going back to the offseason, WVU lost two junior safeties in Derek Pitts and Kenny Robinson to transfer, both of whom were projected starters for 2019. Robinson was an All-Big 12 player who was second on the team in tackles in 2018. More recently, senior safety JoVanni Stewart made the decision to leave the team after four games presumably to take advantage of the NCAA’s new redshirt rule.

Injury wise, current situations include starting quarterback Austin Kendall (chest), who’s questionable going forward, and senior cornerback Keith Washington, who’s also questionable for week 8. Coach Brown announced Tuesday that linebacker VanDarius Cowan suffered a knee injury in the Iowa State game and will be out for the season. Receiver Tevin Bush has officially decided to enter the transfer portal after “dealing with some lingering foot and heal issues,” Coach Brown said, because he wants to be closer to home. WVU also lost defensive end Taijh Alston for the season early on. Receiver Sean Ryan is set to have surgery soon after suffering an injury in the Texas game. The list goes on.

Perhaps it’s the secondary that has experienced the worst of it. The team would welcome the return of a healthy Keith Washington, who leads the Big 12 in passes defended and is second in interceptions. Regardless, it’s going to be up to younger DBs like Nicktroy Fortune, Tae Mayo and Sean Mahone to step up at their respective positions, with senior Josh Norwood leading the way.

Coach Brown indicated that bench players who step up in their roles can also ease the burden of more experienced players tasked with carrying the load. For example, linebacker Josh Chandler has played a lot of snaps this season as the team’s leading tackler. Against Iowa State, Brown reported that Chandler played less snaps as backup Exree Loe filled in well. As a result, Brown thought Chandler “played his best game of the year.”

It will be interesting to see who, if anybody, emerges out of the shadows in place of those who are gone or sidelined.

Beat the Odds

According to ESPN FPI predictions, WVU is currently an underdog against each of its remaining opponents. The EERs actually pulled off one upset when they defeated NC State, 44-27 (had a 28.5% chance to win).

It’s a tough October and November gauntlet that features Big 12 foes Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and TCU. Four of the six games are on the road, including the next two against ranked powerhouses Oklahoma and Baylor.

If the predictions remain in the opponents’ favor as the weeks go by, WVU will have to manage three upsets to make it to a bowl game.

Winning the turnover battle, per usual, will likely be a key factor if WVU is to achieve this goal.

Next Game: Oklahoma

The Mountaineers face their tallest task in Norman on October 19^th. WVU has yet to defeat the Sooners since joining the Big 12 and there’s not much reason to believe that will change in 2019. Vegas favors undefeated OU by 33.5 points, which is “the largest opening line for a WVU team in more than a decade,” according to Chris Anderson.

5^th ranked Oklahoma has perhaps the best offense in the country, producing numbers that “look like stuff that our players play on Madden,” says Coach Brown. Led by dual-threat quarterback Jalen Hurts, star receiver CeeDee Lamb, and several formidable running backs, OU leads the nation in total yards per game at 622 (335 passing; 286 rushing).

Oh, and their defense is reportedly “much improved” from last year as well. The squad is led in part by nose guard Neville Gallimore, linebacker Kenneth Murray and cornerback Trey Brown.

Baylor

At a perfect 6-0, The Bears are ranked 18^th in the country and are currently tied with the Sooners for the top spot in the Big 12. The FPI currently gives the EERs about a 14% chance to win at Waco on October 31^st.

Led by junior defensive tackle James Lynch, the Bears lead the conference in sacks with 23. That’s not good news for the WVU offensive line.

Texas Tech

This is probably the most winnable game left on WVU’s schedule. The Red Raiders currently have the same record as the Mountaineers at 3-3 (1-2 in Big 12). The FPI gives WVU a 45% chance to win this home game on November 9^th.

Even still, led by junior QB Jett Duffey, Tech is second in the Big 12 in passing offense and third in total offense. Senior linebacker Jordyn Brooks leads the conference in tackles with 68 and is tied with Baylor player Lynch in the tackles for loss category. Defensive back Douglas Coleman leads the Big 12 with six interceptions.

Tech just played Baylor tight in a 33-30 overtime loss and defeated Oklahoma State beforehand.

All things said, the Mountaineers need to take advantage of the situation at home and take down the Red Raiders.

Kansas State

This likely remains the second best opportunity for a WVU win in the second half of the season. At 3-2 (0-2 in Big 12), the Wildcats are tied with Kansas for last place in the conference.

However, Kansas State is not to be taken lightly. Led by junior defensive back A.J. Parker, the Wildcats are 1^st in the Big 12 in pass defense. With senior back James Gilbert, the Wildcats are also 4^th in the conference in rushing offense.

WVU will need to play hard to come away with a win at Bill Snyder Family stadium on November 16^th.

Oklahoma State

The Cowboys have the nation’s leading rusher in sophomore Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard is already over the 1,000 yard mark through six games and has 13 touchdowns.

At 4-2 (1-2 in Big 12), Oklahoma State is scheduled to come to Morgantown on November 23^rd. It will be senior night at Milan Puskar Stadium.

Likely because of home-field advantage, FPI actually gives the Mountaineers a decent chance of pulling this one out.

Besides Hubbard, the Cowboys have junior receiver Tylan Wallace who is 5^th in the nation in receiving yards.

Behind the Sooners, Oklahoma State is second in the Big 12 in total offense.

TCU

The Mountaineers travel to Fort Worth to play the Horned Frogs for a regular season finale on Black Friday.

At 3-2 (1-1 in Big 12), TCU only has one quality win being a 21-point defeat of the Purdue Boilermakers.

But led by junior linebacker Garret Wallow, along with defenders Scott Vernon, Trevon Moehrig and Jeff Gladney, the Horned Frogs statistically have the top defense in the Big 12

Additionally, led by senior back Darius Anderson, TCU is third in the conference in rushing offense.